Tesla Updates Wall Street on Semi Production, Optimus Potential, Robotaxi Expansion, and FSD Advancements

Tesla recently engaged with Wall Street firm Piper Sandler, sharing insights into several key areas of its business. The discussion covered the anticipated ramp-up of the Tesla Semi electric truck, the future potential and valuation of the Optimus humanoid robot, the expanding service area for its Robotaxi in Austin, and significant progress in its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software.

Key Takeaways

• Tesla is preparing for a major ramp-up of its Semi truck production, targeting 2026.

• The Optimus robot is expected to take on larger responsibilities within Tesla facilities by 2026 and could be a cost-effective solution for external industries.

• Tesla's Robotaxi service area in Austin has significantly expanded, now covering approximately 170 square miles.

• The upcoming Full Self-Driving v14 update promises substantial improvements, potentially aligning with Robotaxi capabilities.

Tesla Semi Production Ramp

Tesla is gearing up for mass production of its electric Semi truck, with a dedicated factory planned near its Reno, Nevada Gigafactory, aiming for production to commence in 2026. The Semi has already undergone pilot program testing with companies like Frito-Lay and PepsiCo, receiving positive feedback from drivers. While Piper Sandler maintains cautious expectations, they acknowledge Tesla's clear preparation for a "major ramp."

Optimus: Internal and External Value

The Optimus humanoid robot is currently performing tasks within Tesla factories, albeit with relatively low responsibilities for now. However, Piper Sandler anticipates that by this time in 2026, Optimus will be actively involved in moving and staging parts within Tesla's facilities. Beyond internal use, Optimus holds significant potential for external industries as a more affordable solution for tedious and manual labor. The firm suggests that a price point of $100,000 per unit would be justified if Optimus can consistently work 18-hour shifts.

Robotaxi Expansion in Austin

A major focus of the discussion was Tesla's expansion of its Robotaxi geofence in Austin, Texas. The service area has substantially increased to around 170 square miles, surpassing the roughly 90 square miles offered by competitor Waymo in the same city. Tesla has reportedly doubled its geofence three times since the service's launch in late June and has also expanded its fleet by 50 percent, though specific fleet numbers were not disclosed.

Full Self-Driving v14 Launch

Tesla is preparing to roll out version 14 of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software in September or October. CEO Elon Musk described the upcoming release as a "dramatic gain" with a tenfold increase in parameter count and numerous other enhancements. Once real-world safety is confirmed, the system is expected to reduce driver interventions. There is also speculation that FSD v14 could be the version powering the Robotaxi service in Austin, potentially allowing Tesla owners to utilize software on par with the autonomous taxis. Regulatory approval remains a potential hurdle, which Tesla aims to overcome with robust data.

Piper Sandler reiterated its 'Overweight' rating and $400 price target for Tesla stock following these discussions.