Tesla's Q3: A Potential Record-Breaker Driven By Expiring EV Tax Credit

Tesla is poised for a potentially record-breaking third quarter in 2025, largely driven by the impending expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit in the United States. With the "Big Beautiful Bill" passed by Congress, consumers have a limited window to purchase an EV and benefit from the credit, creating a surge in demand that could significantly boost Tesla's delivery numbers.

The Impending End Of The EV Tax Credit

The recently passed "Big Beautiful Bill," expected to be signed by President Trump, will terminate the $7,500 EV tax credit on September 30, 2025. This means that for most consumers, electric vehicles will effectively become $7,500 more expensive after this date. The tax credit is available to:

• Single filers earning under $150,000 annually

• Heads of household earning under $225,000 annually

• Couples filing jointly earning under $300,000 annually

This policy shift aligns with the Trump administration's focus on fossil fuels and its opposition to what it terms an "EV mandate."

Tesla's Strategic Position

While the end of the tax credit will impact all EV manufacturers, Tesla is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the rush. Its high volume of sales gives it a significant advantage. To further incentivize purchases, Tesla is expected to offer additional promotions, such as:

• 0% APR financing

• Special leasing or financing rates

• Limited-time advantages, like free Red, White, and Blue paint options for Independence Day celebrations.

Historical Performance And Future Outlook

Tesla has experienced a slower start to 2025 in terms of deliveries, currently on pace for approximately 1.4 million vehicles, a decrease from the 1.8 million delivered in each of the past two years. However, the second half of the year traditionally sees Tesla's strongest performance. Its top three delivery quarters historically have been:

1. Q4 2024: 495,570 vehicles

2. Q4 2023: 484,507 vehicles

3. Q3 2024: 462,890 vehicles

The urgency created by the expiring tax credit, combined with potential incentives, could propel Q3 2025 to surpass these previous records, making it one of Tesla's most significant quarters to date.